After an optimistic start, markets were dealt a healthy dose of reality in February; volatility spiked and excessive optimism evaporated. Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains how our tactical process effectively managed through the negativity while remaining focused on bullish medium-term fundamentals. Although some signs of stress remain, our dual technical and fundamental investment process had us tactically adding new risk exposures in early April ahead of a robust corporate earnings season.
Read MoreWhile there are clearly problems with the global trade regime, blanket tariffs are not the answer. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why no one wins trade wars and why the mooted U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs particularly miss their mark. Cooler heads should to prevail, but history keeps us cautious. By the way, even with European data strong and political hurdles in Germany and Italy largely cleared, signs of deterioration are showing. Be selective.
Read MoreAmid a record acceleration in stock volatility, U.S. equities experienced more than a 12% decline from their January top. Adam Murl, Head of Research, explores the key market signals to watch over coming weeks, having called the exit on Energy perfectly. And President Trump must be bored in the West Wing because he flew all the way to Davos to start a currency cold war.
Read MoreAfter another year of bull markets, Adam Murl, Head of Research, takes a look at what did and didn’t work in 2017. Although investor sentiment is running hot, a strong case can still be made for risk assets moving higher early in 2018. Several critical questions will challenge investors as the year progresses, however, and the answers will determine the longevity of the global economic cycle and sustainability of the bull market.
Read MoreWill the Fed kill the party with higher interest rates as we enter the next phase of the cycle? Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why rising capital investment could provide the productivity growth we’ve been missing and leave room for the Fed to raise rates without causing a recession. Don't expect this transition to happen quietly, however; volatility is likely to pick up as the market adjusts to this new reality, creating clear winners and losers.
Read MoreCentral banks spent trillions of dollars in an attempt to create inflation but to the surprise of many, pricing pressures remained subdued. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why we might finally be seeing signs of an uptick as commodity prices pop and manufacturing utilization around the world tightens. Accordingly, portfolios have shifted towards Materials and Energy and away from interest rate sensitive sectors.
Read MoreWe’ve been negative on oil... until now. Find out why Adam Murl, Head of Research, finally sees the price of black gold firming and what could drive it even higher. Solid economic data out of the U.K. has Brexit advocates claiming victory, but looking through the numbers has us increasingly concerned. We wrap with our quarterly review and favourable outlook for the final stretch of 2017.
Read MoreOur long-held positive view on global markets takes us to India this month, where the market has performed well year-to-date. As Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains, the country may just be in the early innings of unlocking its potential. We also discuss why tax reform sausage-making in Washington, DC is a process best left unwatched.
Read MoreAfter the sharp rally in the Canadian Dollar, Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why investors should temper expectations for further gains. Our bullish call on Europe continues after the significant run in the Euro; however, we are becoming more discerning with our allocations in the region and have started looking to Asia for compelling investment opportunities.
Read MoreEurope has had a strong start to the year but can it continue? Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why long-held pessimism on the European project might deserve a re-think. We also describe our rationale for overweighting the Health Care sector and specifically, why Biotech now looks interesting after a lengthy period of underperformance. As we close out the quarter we provide our outlook and positioning for the second half of the year.
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