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Commodity Corner - June Investment Commentary

While the investment world waits for the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20, Adam Murl, Head of Research, goes around the horn of the commodity complex providing an update of our views and discussing some of the conflicting moves that we've seen. Parsing through the data, commodity prices are broadly confirming the slowdown in economic and inflation data however interest rate cuts and a trade truce could flip the switch.

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Just Wait For It

Investors face asymmetric risks before the U.S. & China resolve their trade war (or not). On BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights the unfortunate but undeniable link between trade relations and the trajectory of global growth. Investors can only position portfolios with a barbell of secular, high-quality growth balanced with defensive equities until we have clarity on trade, which addresses growth which opens the door for Fed support. Doing nothing is hard, but investors just need to wait.

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June Top Picks on BNN Bloomberg

Markets are stuck in the China-U.S. trade vortex, offering reasons to be both cautious and optimistic. Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights this month’s Top Picks on BNN Bloomberg and discusses the unusual difficulties of portfolio positioning until China and the U.S. reach an agreement or truly walk away. Growth hangs in the balance and the Fed can’t move until the economy slows, so it’s all about Tariff Man.

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Health Care Stocks for None - April Investment Commentary

Health Care has been a popular sector overweight for years; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why it’s time to shift exposure elsewhere as cyclical data improves and the Medicare for All headwind looks sustainable into 2020. Also, we discuss why a cyclical uptick could help European markets recover after their multi-year period of underperformance.

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Growing Slower is NOT the End of the World

In this “mixed” environment offering reasons to be both positive and pessimistic, investors should remember the old adage, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlight this key message back on April 10, 2019. Noting “growing slower” still offers opportunity and the possibility of new market highs, it is now all about how the divergent indicators develop from here.

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Easy Riders - March Investment Commentary

Unconventional monetary policy appears to be back in vogue as central bankers around the world ditch efforts at normalization as inflation and growth data disappoint. With liquidity concerns off the table, Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses what investors should be focused on for signs that risk assets can continue to rally or whether the bear case will play out over the coming months.

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Earnings Recessions & Markets - February Investment Commentary

As estimates for 2019 are revised down, market commentators have become obsessed with discussing a potential earnings recession and what that might mean for investors. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why an earnings recession is usually a negative sign for risk assets but also why we don’t yet view this as the base case. In addition, we touch on oil prices and why we continue to lean bullish.

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Playing the Odds: Knowing When to Buy Again

A good investment process should flag buying opportunities just as well as it keeps you out of harm’s way. While Equium Capital’s first goal is to protect capital, equally as important is earning a reasonable return for clients. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights how a process can flag improving odds of success, what indicators caused the firm to start buying in late December, and where markets are going from here.

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Strategy vs. Tactics - January Investment Commentary

Our tactical signals swung positive following the December wash out; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why we remain concerned with the outlook. There are some positive signs, such as the resetting of earnings expectations and increasing Chinese stimulus, but significant technical damage has been done and leading economic indicators remain in a downtrend. Clarity on trade as well as an inflection in economic growth will be required before risk assets can sustainably advance.

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