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Posts in Investment Commentary
Health Care Stocks for None - April Investment Commentary

Health Care has been a popular sector overweight for years; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why it’s time to shift exposure elsewhere as cyclical data improves and the Medicare for All headwind looks sustainable into 2020. Also, we discuss why a cyclical uptick could help European markets recover after their multi-year period of underperformance.

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Easy Riders - March Investment Commentary

Unconventional monetary policy appears to be back in vogue as central bankers around the world ditch efforts at normalization as inflation and growth data disappoint. With liquidity concerns off the table, Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses what investors should be focused on for signs that risk assets can continue to rally or whether the bear case will play out over the coming months.

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Earnings Recessions & Markets - February Investment Commentary

As estimates for 2019 are revised down, market commentators have become obsessed with discussing a potential earnings recession and what that might mean for investors. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why an earnings recession is usually a negative sign for risk assets but also why we don’t yet view this as the base case. In addition, we touch on oil prices and why we continue to lean bullish.

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Strategy vs. Tactics - January Investment Commentary

Our tactical signals swung positive following the December wash out; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why we remain concerned with the outlook. There are some positive signs, such as the resetting of earnings expectations and increasing Chinese stimulus, but significant technical damage has been done and leading economic indicators remain in a downtrend. Clarity on trade as well as an inflection in economic growth will be required before risk assets can sustainably advance.

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Searching for Santa Claus - December Investment Commentary

While many investors position for the traditional Santa Claus rally, Adam Murl, Head of Research, describes why our Global Tactical Allocation Fund remains defensively positioned. With global economic data and corporate earnings still pointing to growth, recession odds remain low. However, our oft-discussed concern with the retrenchment of global liquidity remains a serious risk, preventing us from becoming more constructive heading into 2019, barring a major policy shift from the Fed.

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Gold: Losing Its Shine - October Investment Commentary

Taking a break from the headlines, Adam Murl, Head of Research, addresses key questions coming in from investors. We discuss the underperformance of Gold and why we don’t hold out much hope for a rebound in the near-term. U.S. equities significantly outperformed global markets this year, but we only see Japan as likely to converge as a result of local economic momentum, improving corporate earnings and cheap valuations.

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Goldilocks & Three Bears - September Investment Commentary

After a long and hot summer, investors return from holidays to near peak U.S. and Canadian equity markets and subdued volatility. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why we think this goldilocks period will be quickly challenged in September by the three bears of trade wars, Italy and Emerging Markets. Although we maintain exposure to risk assets, our sector allocations are shifting defensively and we note the three bears should be strong determinants on the direction of markets from here.

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Taking Stock of a Changing Landscape - July Investment Commentary

The market is no longer rewarding strong economic data and stellar corporate earnings. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why investors aren't impressed and highlights which leading indicators are now flashing warning signs. We still see time left on the clock for equities, but our portfolio is shifting more defensively. With strong results now in the books for first half 2018, our Global Tactical Allocation strategy is well ahead of peers and on pace to deliver its annual high single digit return goal.

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Scaling the Earnings Peak - May Investment Commentary

Q1 left investors scratching their heads as significant earnings upside was met with disappointing price action. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why many of the popular concerns are unwarranted and why we don’t believe earnings have peaked. Also, we turned tactically positive on Energy owing to a technical breakout and the oil supply-demand imbalance tightening more than expected due to strong demand, challenges in Venezuela and increasingly hawkish U.S.-Iran policy.

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