Amid rising market volatility, it behooves investors to mind the growing list of leading indicators turning negative. Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlighted some remaining investable areas of global markets, e.g. real estate, but noted the critical requirement for a disciplined exit process in order to protect capital as the cycle comes to an end.
Read MoreWith the G-20 in the rear view mirror and the China-U.S. trade war effectively kicked down the road, investors are rightly turning attention to earnings and macroeconomic indicators, many of which point to a tough patch ahead. On BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights the viable investing environment that tends to prevail in the 12 months before recessionary periods, noting that portfolios need to be focused in the right areas of the market.
Read MoreInvestors face asymmetric risks before the U.S. & China resolve their trade war (or not). On BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights the unfortunate but undeniable link between trade relations and the trajectory of global growth. Investors can only position portfolios with a barbell of secular, high-quality growth balanced with defensive equities until we have clarity on trade, which addresses growth which opens the door for Fed support. Doing nothing is hard, but investors just need to wait.
Read MoreIn this “mixed” environment offering reasons to be both positive and pessimistic, investors should remember the old adage, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlight this key message back on April 10, 2019. Noting “growing slower” still offers opportunity and the possibility of new market highs, it is now all about how the divergent indicators develop from here.
Read MoreUnconventional monetary policy appears to be back in vogue as central bankers around the world ditch efforts at normalization as inflation and growth data disappoint. With liquidity concerns off the table, Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses what investors should be focused on for signs that risk assets can continue to rally or whether the bear case will play out over the coming months.
Read MoreAs estimates for 2019 are revised down, market commentators have become obsessed with discussing a potential earnings recession and what that might mean for investors. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why an earnings recession is usually a negative sign for risk assets but also why we don’t yet view this as the base case. In addition, we touch on oil prices and why we continue to lean bullish.
Read MoreA good investment process should flag buying opportunities just as well as it keeps you out of harm’s way. While Equium Capital’s first goal is to protect capital, equally as important is earning a reasonable return for clients. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights how a process can flag improving odds of success, what indicators caused the firm to start buying in late December, and where markets are going from here.
Read MoreOur tactical signals swung positive following the December wash out; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why we remain concerned with the outlook. There are some positive signs, such as the resetting of earnings expectations and increasing Chinese stimulus, but significant technical damage has been done and leading economic indicators remain in a downtrend. Clarity on trade as well as an inflection in economic growth will be required before risk assets can sustainably advance.
Read MoreWhile many investors position for the traditional Santa Claus rally, Adam Murl, Head of Research, describes why our Global Tactical Allocation Fund remains defensively positioned. With global economic data and corporate earnings still pointing to growth, recession odds remain low. However, our oft-discussed concern with the retrenchment of global liquidity remains a serious risk, preventing us from becoming more constructive heading into 2019, barring a major policy shift from the Fed.
Read MoreNoting the potential for a short-term but strong Santa Claus rally, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, enumerates the factors that appear likely to keep a lid on markets over the medium term, particularly in Canada. Relief on trade conflicts or a moderation in Federal Reserve tightening could inspire a year-end rally, but fundamentals argue for a resumption of equity and credit pain in early 2019.
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