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Posts in GTA Fund
Growing Slower is NOT the End of the World

In this “mixed” environment offering reasons to be both positive and pessimistic, investors should remember the old adage, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlight this key message back on April 10, 2019. Noting “growing slower” still offers opportunity and the possibility of new market highs, it is now all about how the divergent indicators develop from here.

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Easy Riders - March Investment Commentary

Unconventional monetary policy appears to be back in vogue as central bankers around the world ditch efforts at normalization as inflation and growth data disappoint. With liquidity concerns off the table, Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses what investors should be focused on for signs that risk assets can continue to rally or whether the bear case will play out over the coming months.

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Earnings Recessions & Markets - February Investment Commentary

As estimates for 2019 are revised down, market commentators have become obsessed with discussing a potential earnings recession and what that might mean for investors. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why an earnings recession is usually a negative sign for risk assets but also why we don’t yet view this as the base case. In addition, we touch on oil prices and why we continue to lean bullish.

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Playing the Odds: Knowing When to Buy Again

A good investment process should flag buying opportunities just as well as it keeps you out of harm’s way. While Equium Capital’s first goal is to protect capital, equally as important is earning a reasonable return for clients. Joining BNN Bloomberg, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, highlights how a process can flag improving odds of success, what indicators caused the firm to start buying in late December, and where markets are going from here.

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Strategy vs. Tactics - January Investment Commentary

Our tactical signals swung positive following the December wash out; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why we remain concerned with the outlook. There are some positive signs, such as the resetting of earnings expectations and increasing Chinese stimulus, but significant technical damage has been done and leading economic indicators remain in a downtrend. Clarity on trade as well as an inflection in economic growth will be required before risk assets can sustainably advance.

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Searching for Santa Claus - December Investment Commentary

While many investors position for the traditional Santa Claus rally, Adam Murl, Head of Research, describes why our Global Tactical Allocation Fund remains defensively positioned. With global economic data and corporate earnings still pointing to growth, recession odds remain low. However, our oft-discussed concern with the retrenchment of global liquidity remains a serious risk, preventing us from becoming more constructive heading into 2019, barring a major policy shift from the Fed.

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Growth is Slowing. Sell Equities When Santa Comes to Town.

Noting the potential for a short-term but strong Santa Claus rally, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, enumerates the factors that appear likely to keep a lid on markets over the medium term, particularly in Canada. Relief on trade conflicts or a moderation in Federal Reserve tightening could inspire a year-end rally, but fundamentals argue for a resumption of equity and credit pain in early 2019.

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Reality Check: It's the Beginning of the End

Every bull comes to an end. Market tops don’t happen overnight or even in one month, but they all inevitably yield to a bear that feeds on the excesses of the prior cycle. With negative conditional factors piling up, debt issuance at historical peaks and increasing parallels to 1999/2000, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, joins BNN Bloomberg to offer a reality check on where the markets stand and what’s likely to come next.

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Gold: Losing Its Shine - October Investment Commentary

Taking a break from the headlines, Adam Murl, Head of Research, addresses key questions coming in from investors. We discuss the underperformance of Gold and why we don’t hold out much hope for a rebound in the near-term. U.S. equities significantly outperformed global markets this year, but we only see Japan as likely to converge as a result of local economic momentum, improving corporate earnings and cheap valuations.

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If You Think Emerging Market Pain is Isolated... Think Again

Coordinated central bank easing in the aftermath of the financial crisis made markets more globally interconnected than ever before, much more than investors realize. Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, explains on BNN Bloomberg how U.S. credit spreads, emerging markets equities and Canadian financial conditions are all linked by the receding tide of global liquidity.

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