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Posts in Investment Commentary
Strategy vs. Tactics - January Investment Commentary

Our tactical signals swung positive following the December wash out; however, Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains why we remain concerned with the outlook. There are some positive signs, such as the resetting of earnings expectations and increasing Chinese stimulus, but significant technical damage has been done and leading economic indicators remain in a downtrend. Clarity on trade as well as an inflection in economic growth will be required before risk assets can sustainably advance.

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Searching for Santa Claus - December Investment Commentary

While many investors position for the traditional Santa Claus rally, Adam Murl, Head of Research, describes why our Global Tactical Allocation Fund remains defensively positioned. With global economic data and corporate earnings still pointing to growth, recession odds remain low. However, our oft-discussed concern with the retrenchment of global liquidity remains a serious risk, preventing us from becoming more constructive heading into 2019, barring a major policy shift from the Fed.

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Gold: Losing Its Shine - October Investment Commentary

Taking a break from the headlines, Adam Murl, Head of Research, addresses key questions coming in from investors. We discuss the underperformance of Gold and why we don’t hold out much hope for a rebound in the near-term. U.S. equities significantly outperformed global markets this year, but we only see Japan as likely to converge as a result of local economic momentum, improving corporate earnings and cheap valuations.

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Goldilocks & Three Bears - September Investment Commentary

After a long and hot summer, investors return from holidays to near peak U.S. and Canadian equity markets and subdued volatility. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why we think this goldilocks period will be quickly challenged in September by the three bears of trade wars, Italy and Emerging Markets. Although we maintain exposure to risk assets, our sector allocations are shifting defensively and we note the three bears should be strong determinants on the direction of markets from here.

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Taking Stock of a Changing Landscape - July Investment Commentary

The market is no longer rewarding strong economic data and stellar corporate earnings. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why investors aren't impressed and highlights which leading indicators are now flashing warning signs. We still see time left on the clock for equities, but our portfolio is shifting more defensively. With strong results now in the books for first half 2018, our Global Tactical Allocation strategy is well ahead of peers and on pace to deliver its annual high single digit return goal.

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Scaling the Earnings Peak - May Investment Commentary

Q1 left investors scratching their heads as significant earnings upside was met with disappointing price action. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why many of the popular concerns are unwarranted and why we don’t believe earnings have peaked. Also, we turned tactically positive on Energy owing to a technical breakout and the oil supply-demand imbalance tightening more than expected due to strong demand, challenges in Venezuela and increasingly hawkish U.S.-Iran policy.

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Process At Work - April Investment Commentary

After an optimistic start, markets were dealt a healthy dose of reality in February; volatility spiked and excessive optimism evaporated. Adam Murl, Head of Research, explains how our tactical process effectively managed through the negativity while remaining focused on bullish medium-term fundamentals. Although some signs of stress remain, our dual technical and fundamental investment process had us tactically adding new risk exposures in early April ahead of a robust corporate earnings season.

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Trade Wars Are (Not) Good - March Investment Commentary

While there are clearly problems with the global trade regime, blanket tariffs are not the answer. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why no one wins trade wars and why the mooted U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs particularly miss their mark. Cooler heads should to prevail, but history keeps us cautious. By the way, even with European data strong and political hurdles in Germany and Italy largely cleared, signs of deterioration are showing. Be selective.

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V is for Volatility - February Investment Commentary

Amid a record acceleration in stock volatility, U.S. equities experienced more than a 12% decline from their January top. Adam Murl, Head of Research, explores the key market signals to watch over coming weeks, having called the exit on Energy perfectly. And President Trump must be bored in the West Wing because he flew all the way to Davos to start a currency cold war. 

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