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Posts in GTA Fund
Growth is Slowing. Sell Equities When Santa Comes to Town.

Noting the potential for a short-term but strong Santa Claus rally, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, enumerates the factors that appear likely to keep a lid on markets over the medium term, particularly in Canada. Relief on trade conflicts or a moderation in Federal Reserve tightening could inspire a year-end rally, but fundamentals argue for a resumption of equity and credit pain in early 2019.

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Reality Check: It's the Beginning of the End

Every bull comes to an end. Market tops don’t happen overnight or even in one month, but they all inevitably yield to a bear that feeds on the excesses of the prior cycle. With negative conditional factors piling up, debt issuance at historical peaks and increasing parallels to 1999/2000, Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, joins BNN Bloomberg to offer a reality check on where the markets stand and what’s likely to come next.

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Gold: Losing Its Shine - October Investment Commentary

Taking a break from the headlines, Adam Murl, Head of Research, addresses key questions coming in from investors. We discuss the underperformance of Gold and why we don’t hold out much hope for a rebound in the near-term. U.S. equities significantly outperformed global markets this year, but we only see Japan as likely to converge as a result of local economic momentum, improving corporate earnings and cheap valuations.

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If You Think Emerging Market Pain is Isolated... Think Again

Coordinated central bank easing in the aftermath of the financial crisis made markets more globally interconnected than ever before, much more than investors realize. Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, explains on BNN Bloomberg how U.S. credit spreads, emerging markets equities and Canadian financial conditions are all linked by the receding tide of global liquidity.

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Goldilocks & Three Bears - September Investment Commentary

After a long and hot summer, investors return from holidays to near peak U.S. and Canadian equity markets and subdued volatility. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why we think this goldilocks period will be quickly challenged in September by the three bears of trade wars, Italy and Emerging Markets. Although we maintain exposure to risk assets, our sector allocations are shifting defensively and we note the three bears should be strong determinants on the direction of markets from here.

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Taking Stock of a Changing Landscape - July Investment Commentary

The market is no longer rewarding strong economic data and stellar corporate earnings. Adam Murl, Head of Research, discusses why investors aren't impressed and highlights which leading indicators are now flashing warning signs. We still see time left on the clock for equities, but our portfolio is shifting more defensively. With strong results now in the books for first half 2018, our Global Tactical Allocation strategy is well ahead of peers and on pace to deliver its annual high single digit return goal.

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How Does a Trade War End a Rally? With Ease.

The significant economic benefits of U.S. tax relief and efficient foreign cash repatriation were within America's grasp, but they're being rapidly undermined by a trade war that's shaking corporate confidence. Cameron Hurst, Chief Investment Officer, explains how this unexpected development may bring one of the longest bull markets in history to an expedient and unceremonious end.

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Liquidity is a Ticking Time Bomb

10 years ago, central banks the world over launched unprecedented stimulus programs to flood global capital markets with excess cash, i.e. liquidity, to stave off a second Great Depression. But now, with the global economy again self-sustaining, policy makers are dialing back the stimulus and reining in excess liquidity that's propelled asset prices to their lofty valuations. Cameron Hurst, CIO, joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss how this super-cycle could come to an end and what sign posts to watch for.

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